Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004 is a site that predicts the electoral vote using polling data. Currently it shows Kerry winning.
Edited 8/14: I updated the link which didn't work anymore. Also, after looking around this site more I think that this site has a bias towards Kerry. Someone mentioned it might be biased in the comments. I don't know if the section on Bush's record was there before, but it certainly has an anti-Bush slant now.